As we enter 2025, the Norwegian equity capital market (ECM) still presents a mixed picture. While the main index of the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) reached an all-time high last year, the Norwegian equity capital market continues to mirror global trends and challenges, and has been significantly impacted by a slow decrease in inflation levels and persistently high interest rates.
This environment has resulted in a weak IPO market both globally and in Norway, with M&A processes being the preferred exit strategy for stakeholders. On a positive note, issuers on the OSE have been able to raise substantial amounts of equity capital, and Thommessen has been involved in private placements accounting for more than 40% of the proceeds raised through such transactions in 2024.
Fuelled by expected lower interest rates, improved economic confidence and more favourable market conditions, we expect to see even larger ECM transactions in Norway in 2025 – and hopefully a resurgence of IPOs.
Key ECM trends in 2024
- Private Placements: While the equity capital markets have not matched the activity levels of the booming Norwegian high-yield bond market, there has been a notable number of private placements in companies listed on the OSE. In 2024, between 60 and 70 private placements were completed across all trading venues of the OSE, raising more than NOK 16 billion in total. Some of these private placements were followed by subsequent repair offerings.
- Rights Issues: Compared to previous years, 2024 saw an increase in rights issues, primarily driven by companies facing financial challenges.
- IPOs: There were 19 listings on the OSE in 2024; however, most of these were uplistings from other OSE trading venues or direct listings without an offering component. Only one "true" IPO (Public Property Invest ASA) was completed, reflecting the cautious sentiment among companies considering initial public offerings. Additionally, there seems to be a growing trend towards listings on the OSE's junior market, Euronext Growth Oslo, which appears to be gaining popularity as a stepping stone to the OSE's two regulated markets.
- Widening the Horizon: Notably, a number of Norwegian companies which are considering an IPO, as well as certain companies already listed on the OSE, are looking towards the United States for (assumed) higher valuations and increased liquidity.
Notable ECM Transactions in 2024
Thommessen has played a key role in several landmark ECM transactions in the Norwegian market in 2024, including:
- The NOK 3 billion IPO of Public Property Invest ASA on the OSE main list
- The NOK 1.8 billion private placement in Cadeler A/S
- The NOK 535 million private placement and subsequent listing of Ventura Offshore on Euronext Growth Oslo
- The NOK 500 million private placement in XXL in Q1 and the NOK 600 million underwritten rights issue in XXL ASA in Q4
- The NOK 250 million rights issue in Vow
- The NOK 1 billion private placement in DOF Group
- The NOK 100 million private placement and subsequent listing of OncoInvent on Euronext Growth
Looking ahead: 2025 Outlook
As we look towards 2025, there are encouraging signs of a potential recovery in the US IPO market. However, the revival of the European IPO market is lagging behind, leading to a more cautious optimism for both Norway and the broader European landscape. That said, lower interest rates and improved economic confidence will hopefully reignite IPO activity, particularly in the second half of 2025.
A significant number of private equity portfolio companies are overdue for exits, which could further drive activity in the equity capital markets. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether IPO valuations will surpass those achieved through an M&A exit.
